Let's Make 2015 Predictions!

It's a well known fact that gamers are bad at predictions. Let's prove this stereotype right again for the fifth year running with our predictions about what will happen in 2015, so we can come back to this thread next year and laugh at how completely dumb we are about everything.

What do you think will happen in 2015? The topic is Games and Gaming, but don't feel that you have to limit yourself to that if you have a burning prediction in some other field you KNOW will happen (it won't.)

Make your predictions in this thread by January 19!

Just so you can see how badly we did in prior years:

2010 Predictions

Worst prediction of 2010, in hindsight: "The Spider-Man musical will win several Tony awards."

2011 Predictions

Worst prediction of 2011, in hindsight: "Kickstarter will lose steam, as enough people have been burned by paying for projects and not getting anything out of it."

2012 Predictions

Worst prediction of 2012, in hindsight: "Adamant's Buckaroo Banzai will be a complete sell out at Gencon."

2013 Predictions

Worst prediction of 2013, in hindsight: "Boxed sets and stapled booklets will gradually come to dominate RPGs again. Case-bound paperback books will seem weird by 2014, if they aren't already. Fancy hardcovers will seem like those foil comics from the 1990s."

2014 Predictions

My hindsight's not that good yet.

Special Rules:

* Saying "Pathfinder Online won't launch" isn't a prediction until the year they set a release date. You CAN predict that Pathfinder Online WILL launch if you want, but you'll be wrong, because it won't.

* Saying "Adamant Entertainment won't release ______________" is not a prediction.

Tip: Remember that if your prediction is vague, you have more room to wheedle and whine about whether or not you were right (you weren't). But if your prediction is specific it's more likely we'll be able to tell that you nailed it.

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Comments

  • A new game will gain some traction, which uses a new type of dice. Not just new labels on existing dice shapes (like Fudge/Fate dice, or the icon dice in the current Star Wars game) — no, these will be polyhedra that haven't been used before. There are so many to choose from! For example, take the snub cube (d38!) … or even the icosidodecahedron (d32!), which is especially fun because some of its faces are a lot smaller (= less likely) than others.

    image
  • Since dice, coins, cards, tarot, and even the dreidel have been used in RPGs, the next 'new' randomization method will be based on the I Ching and use coins or yarrow sticks. Purists will claim that the yarrow sticks are the best method while others will argue that the coins are faster.
  • Someone will created an AW powdered mash-up of Nephilim and Foucault's Pendulum. The game will play out with no one knowing if they are actually Nephilim or just emotionally crippled academics. And like the book, very few people will actually make it through a whole game.
  • Since dice, coins, cards, tarot, and even the dreidel have been used in RPGs, the next 'new' randomization method will be based on the I Ching and use coins or yarrow sticks. Purists will claim that the yarrow sticks are the best method while others will argue that the coins are faster.
    Or you can use dice.
  • edited January 2015
    1. The legal battle for the film rights to the Dungeons and Dragons IP will not be resolved. No matter whether the judgement favours Sweetpea Entertainment/Warner Brothers or Hasbro/Universal, the other side will appeal the decision. This will immensely frustrate all parties involved, each of whom will immediately announce their ambitions for building a Marvel Cinematic Universe-style mega-franchise out of the property.

    2. The second edition of Monster of the Week will be a commercial hit and win first or second place in a major RPG award.

    3. Wil Wheaton and Geek and Sundry will run another successful crowd-funding campaign for Tabletop Season 4. The scope of this campaign's rewards will be less ambitious that the previous one's.

    4. Wil Wheaton's web-series about tabletop gaming will launch.

    5. Wil Wheaton's web-series about tabletop gaming will cause an argument between different self-identified factions of the roleplaying community.

    6. I will release Left Coast and Soth for sale on DriveThruRPG.

    7. Frustration with and resistance to the EU's changes to how VAT is applied to sellers of online products will build but no significant changes will be made.

    8. An online seller will stop providing products to the EU as a result of the VAT changes. Another online seller will announce that it is considering winding up their business.

    9. Everyone will want to play either the Driver or the Hocus in games of Apocalypse World, after the release of Fury Road.

    10. Adamant Entertainment will release the .pdf of Far West.
  • edited January 2015
    I won't release anything Apocalypse World related in July, proving once and for all that I'm super duper dumb.
  • My predictin is that lumpley will do something to prove himself very smart, disproving his own prediction, thus reproving his own prediction, thus disproving his own prediction ad infinitum
  • 5E's essentially solid chassis won't be destroyed by the supplement treadmill this year.
  • My predictin is that lumpley will do something to prove himself very smart, disproving his own prediction, thus reproving his own prediction, thus disproving his own prediction ad infinitum
    All of RPGdom will be sucked into a black hole of endless roll+Weird!

    ;-)
  • Yes. That is 100% my prediction. If there is some tiny sliver of RPGdom that hasn't fallen into that unescapable vortex by Jan 1 2016, I am wrong. Falsifiability ftw!
  • Multiple RPG designers will promote the use of hashtags for the discussion of their games, rather than having dedicated discussion forums.

  • * Saying "Pathfinder Online won't launch" isn't a prediction until the year they set a release date. You CAN predict that Pathfinder Online WILL launch if you want, but you'll be wrong, because it won't.
    Pathfinder Online will launch.
  • Multiple RPG designers will promote the use of hashtags for the discussion of their games, rather than having dedicated discussion forums.
    Already seems to be happening.

  • Someone will created an AW powdered mash-up of Nephilim and Foucault's Pendulum. The game will play out with no one knowing if they are actually Nephilim or just emotionally crippled academics. And like the book, very few people will actually make it through a whole game.
    I want that game.

  • Oh man. I really really do too. Too bad it was predicted. Statistically, it isn't going to happen. (Though frankly Steve H's seem really tempting!)
  • The presence of Dread on Tabletop will herald a flood of newcomers to the RPG hobby, completely baffling the D&D crowd.
  • I predict that nothing new or groundbreaking or really different will happen to rpgs in 2015, that several people will disagree with this prediction at the end of the year, and that (much to the chagrin of those people) JDCorley will officially rule my prediction as successfully having come true.
  • Heh.

    @Johnstone: let's set some guideposts here! List three as recent as you can muster things that fit your criteria.
  • The presence of Dread on Tabletop will herald a flood of newcomers to the RPG hobby, completely baffling the D&D crowd.
    Oh are they running Dread? :(
    Is than the first dexterity game they've featured?
  • Predictions that troll me often work. It's a bold move, Cotton, let's see if it pays off
  • Heh.

    @Johnstone: let's set some guideposts here! List three as recent as you can muster things that fit your criteria.
    I'm not Johnstone, but I'd say that the release of apocalypse world (and subsequent proliferation of "powered by the apocalypse") and game designers using patreon should both count as examples of "new or groundbreaking."
  • edited January 2015
    Another prediction! With everyone burnt out on Powered by the Apocalypse hacks, the new go-to for RPG hacking will be Epidiah Ravachol's game Swords Without Master.

    Oh! Oh! And, Bully Pulpit will announce another book-sized Fiasco supplement in the vein of the Fiasco Companion. (So, not a smaller PDF like American Disasters, but an actual Fiasco-sized book.)
    The presence of Dread on Tabletop will herald a flood of newcomers to the RPG hobby, completely baffling the D&D crowd.
    Oh are they running Dread? :(
    Is than the first dexterity game they've featured?
    It looks to be; they did also feature X-Wing before, which is definitely a game that requires some amount of dexterity to play well.
  • Wizards of the Cost will start selling e-books of their D&D products.
  • Wizards of the Cost will start selling e-books of their D&D products.
    dndclassics.com launched awhile ago, or did you mean the current D&D products?

  • Another prediction! With everyone burnt out on Powered by the Apocalypse hacks, the new go-to for RPG hacking will be Epidiah Ravachol's game Swords Without Master.
    I’d LOVE that to be the case, as Swords Without Master is such a terrific game/system, however I think the rapacious desire to hack big ticket systems will hover over FATE/FATE x, y and z for a while longer.
  • edited January 2015
    I predict (this definitely isn't a joke prediction, I really think it's plausible) that WotC will sell the D&D IP to Paizo.
  • I predict (this definitely isn't a joke prediction, I really think it's plausible) that WotC will sell the D&D IP to Paizo.
    That makes a surprising amount of sense. Though I feel like it's a little early for that, plus WotC is using the D&D IP to cash in with stuff like the Attack Wing and Megablocks licenses.

    Licensing the IP to Paizo to make more RPG stuff, though? I could totally see that happening in a few years.

  • I meant current
  • I predict (this definitely isn't a joke prediction, I really think it's plausible) that WotC will sell the D&D IP to Paizo.
    I doubt that - for one thing, the D&D IP is locked up with Hasbro and what it does with it (KRE-O anyone) and not under WotC's control. I suppose it's possible that they could license 'D&D' for RPG games to Paizo, but I doubt it - between WotC having just launched D&D and with Paizo's schtick being that they're different from WotC, I don't see them going for it. Although I'd love for Paizo to re-launch Dragon magazine, myself.



  • Delta Green and Unknown Armies will both have 6-figure kickstarters (but DG's will be bigger.)

    There will be at least a vocal push to avoid Call of Cthulhu 7e's new mechanics and make supplements for the old rules. If DG OGLs their rules, they'll catch on as a standard for third parties to rally behind (probably no releases before the end of the year, just announcements.) Otherwise, there'll be a project to construct an OGL-ed BRP for Lovecraftian role-playing. (Existing OGL-ed BRPs won't win out.) Regardless of all of the above, we'll see even more Lovecraftian supplements that don't get a Chaosium license.

    Atlas will announce there'll be a new edition of Over the Edge.

    There will be another campaign-game made with Lady Blackbird mechanics (i.e., something like Always, Never, Now.)

    The RPG community will basically recapitulate the Stacey Jay kickstarter thing in which someone's excoriated for admitting to planning to spend crowdfunded money for living expenses.

    We'll start seeing more instances of RPG kickstarters failing to fund (or being cancelled when it's clear they won't.)

    GamerGate will grind on and on with no end in sight.

    We'll see a substantial project to make lots of plans for 3D printed miniatures. Maybe a commercial project, maybe a group open source project.

    We'll see one or more new game mechanics using fudge dice in strange new ways in combination with other dice and/or in sets other than four.

    An article called something like "Why I'm Giving Up on Fate!" will stir up a lot of discussion but die out by 3 days or so later.

    Evil Hat will announce a release date for Bubblegumshoe. Evil Hat's release of Monster of the Week will bring a bunch more people to PbtA games and we'll see a bunch more PbtA hacks announced but not released.

    There will briefly be some excitement about a new edition of a Buffy RPG, but nothing will come of it.
  • That would be awesome if correct, though they seem to be following a model of "release a free, lesser version via PDF" for the moment.
  • A publisher announces a licensed RPG based on a TV show that's still on the air.

    Doubling down on my previous prediction, MWP will update the Smallville RPG into a game based on the Arrow/Flash DCTV universe.

    D&D 5e gets a big surge of new players in fall of 2015, as people who were holding out try it and end up liking it.

    Something Paizo does related to minority inclusion in their games generates some buzz outside RPG-specific circles.

    I was gonna predict a Quiet Year Variant from Avery McDaldno, But that happened at the very end of 2014, so instead I predict another Avery writes a game that somehow addresses the experiences of the physically disabled.

    FFG announces a new edition of WFRP. It has fewer cardboard tokens than their last version.

    Google does something to Google Plus that drives more visitors back to this forum.

    Someone will write a game that relies on the fact that some of the players at the table speak a language that the others don't.
  • An as of yet unknown computer game version of a story game will be announced (or kickstarted).
  • GURPS Discworld will be released. GURPS Girl Genius will not. (Admittedly, the latter is shooting fish in a barrel with a shotgun.)
  • Oh man, I can smell the failure already; keep it coming!
  • D&D 5e gets a big surge of new players in fall of 2015, as people who were holding out try it and end up liking it.
    Interesting, because mine is that there is a drop-off of interest in D&D 5e as players find that it fails to live up to its marketing/expectations.

  • I can't wait for it to hold steady and for both of you to be wrong.
  • The InSpectres movie will be discovered by someone famous, and quickly become a cult classic.
  • The InSpectres movie will be discovered by someone famous, and quickly become a cult classic.
    And there will be an RPG based on it, called Ghostbusters.

  • The InSpectres movie will be discovered by someone famous, and quickly become a cult classic.
    And there will be an RPG based on it, called Ghostbusters.

    ...and they will send Bill Murray back in time to make it into a movie?

  • The InSpectres movie will be discovered by someone famous, and quickly become a cult classic.
    And there will be an RPG based on it, called Ghostbusters.

    ...and they will send Bill Murray back in time to make it into a movie?

    Yes, in a car driven by Christopher Lloyd.
  • With Roll20 and various VTT Kickstarters, plus the recent success of the RPG One-Shot Group on FB, I predict a KS to make a player-GM game connector service/app/site.

    Riffing off the predictions above, 3D printing services like HeroForge will emerge for game parts, tokens, aids, gimmicks. 3D fantasy coinage, for example. A smart company will network several 3D printer owners to group-supply KS projects with their promised rewards.

    POD will break into new ground. GM screens, stickers, badges, bookmarks, etc.

    Someone makes a story game for runners and joggers.

    A video game with awkward tabletop physical elements powered by apps will launch on KS.

    Story games via "employee gamification" will make it into the boardroom as employers strive to figure out knowledge workers.

    Dice embedded with chips will report to an app-enabled GM screen their real-time ongoing chi-square tests.

    Someone publishes a universe where multiple story games co-exist in shared realities for characters, like an iOS for apps.

    McDonalds puts a big d12 die and a one-page cardboard story game with a sticker collectability aspect in their happy meals. Earn stickers from fries and nuggets boxes. The stickers go on the dice.
  • One more week. I'm glad we're seeing some late contenders for "not a real prediction" "shit that's already happening" and some stuff that will never, ever happen.
  • Wil Wheaton's mystery RPG show will be a Primetime Adventures campaign.
  • edited January 2015
    McDonalds puts a big d12 die and a one-page cardboard story game with a sticker collectability aspect in their happy meals. Earn stickers from fries and nuggets boxes. The stickers go on the dice.
    This isn't as ridiculous as it might at first seem. I actually think McDonalds should do so, as it would be a very good way of bringing new blood into the hobby, to take over once all us old farts are put out to grass.

  • Choking hazard. Won't happen. ;)
  • Choking hazard. Won't happen. ;)
    I hate knowing you're absolutely right...

    ...unless it's a massive d12.
  • Choking hazard. Won't happen. ;)
    Not a problem, they'll make them big and fluffy. The adults will have the crunchy d4s.
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