Concerned Citizens for Responsible Fortune

edited July 2006 in Play Advice
Hi folks,

A thread that gets repeated often in fora is "hey, mathematicians, can you check out this dice/card/entrail-reading mechanic."

I pestered a mathematician once about probabilities in Sorcerer. I got back a PDF a few hours later with some unbelievably hairy integral math that turned out to be wrong anyways.

Recently I searched up this page with weird Excel plug-ins. I poked at it and it produces pure mystery.

Anyone know of Excel (or other automated) methods that will let a mere mortal do the combinatorics needed to sort through a randomizing method to check out its probabilities? I mean, besides doing 10,000 rolls? 'Cause I can mostly do that with scripting languages.



  • Check out Professor Torben Mogensen's Roll program, found on his home page. I used it to determine probabilities for Verge's dice mechanics, which are tricksy. The Verge page includes examples of Roll scripts and sample output.
  • Seconded. And if you need help programmign Roll, just ask.
  • I've been using UeberDice for that kind of thing. It's a Java program similar to Roll, but it also makes graphs!
  • Roll is wonderful. There's a lot you can do with a spreadsheet and a little cleverness as well... I keep meaning to write a tutorial on that sort of thing.

    (Well, actually, I've written one more than once, for old mailing lists and newsgroups, but I keep meaning to dig it out and flesh it out more...)

    If you want an analysis of Sorcerer's dice, I've got a spreadsheet around somewhere with that.
  • Walt Freitag has an excellent analysis of Sorcerer's dice somewhere on the Adept Press forum. Search for it.

    Roll is hot. I'm trying to figure out how to code As It Happens dice.

    Bliss Stage has too many decision points for non-game-theory analysis, sadly.

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